BusinessGovernment
Dark Matter R&D · Public sector · Montréal

Modelling, forecasting
and analysis for public programs.

Defensible, documented and reproducible analysis for federal, provincial and municipal teams, delivered end to end by a senior quantitative specialist. Fixed price, typically under $40K, in English or French. You own the code, the data and the deliverables.

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Contract
Fixed price / typically under $40K
Supplier
Canadian / registered with the Government of Canada
Language
Bilingual / English or French
Ownership
Yours outright / code, data, documentation
01 /Areas of Expertise

Where we do our best work.

Quantitative work for programs that need numbers they can defend: in a briefing, in a report, or in front of a review committee.

01

Carbon pricing and carbon markets

Price and market modelling, comparative analysis of pricing systems, household and industry impacts, offset credits.

02

Energy modelling and emissions forecasting

Forecasts of demand, costs and emissions, scenario analysis, and independent verification of existing models.

03

Financial analysis: costs and liabilities

Cost and liability estimation, evaluation of projects and claims, and risk analysis with stated assumptions and ranges.

04

Machine learning and algorithms

Reference datasets, predictive models, model evaluation and uncertainty quantification.

05

Data, tools and visualization

Scientific graphics, dashboards, interactive tools and automated data pipelines that refresh from source.

06

Under a prime contractor

Scoped work packages as a subcontractor: modelling, forecasting, machine learning and data work, delivered under the prime's process.

02 /Typical Engagements

Scoped, fixed-price, delivered in weeks.

Each engagement starts from your question and your data, and ends with something your team can use and rerun.

Engagement
What you receive
Timeline
Analysis or assessment note
For example, comparing carbon-pricing systems. Written analysis, figures, a methods note and the code behind every number.
4 to 8 weeks
Forecasting model, or independent model review
The model or the review, out-of-sample validation, documentation and a handover session.
6 to 10 weeks
Cost and liability estimation
Estimates with stated assumptions and ranges, sensitivity analysis and reproducible code.
4 to 8 weeks
Reference datasets and machine-learning models
A cleaned, labelled and documented dataset with a QA report; trained and evaluated models.
4 to 8 weeks
Scientific visualization, dashboards and tools
A figure set or dashboard to spec, automated refresh and reusable plotting code.
3 to 8 weeks
Every engagement is quoted at a fixed price, usually within 48 hours, with milestone payments. Most fit a simple contract under $40K including taxes. Rates on request.
03 /How We Work

Built so the numbers hold up.

Confirmed in writing within a day

Every request is confirmed in writing within one business day: the question, the data, the deliverable, the deadline.

Reproducible by design

All processing is done in code, so every number can be regenerated from the source data, by us or by your team.

Validated before it ships

Predictive models are tested on data they have never seen, and the uncertainty is stated, not hidden.

Documented and handed over

A methods note and the code ship with every deliverable. Every published figure is checked twice.

◆ Data and confidentiality
Data is processed and stored in Canada, or stays in your environment if you prefer. Confidentiality terms are accepted as standard. Nothing is shared or reused without your permission.
Canadian supplier

A Canadian corporation based in Montréal.

Data in Canada

Processed and stored in Canada, or in your environment.

Bilingual

Work and deliverables in English or French.

Yours outright

Code, data and documentation are yours.

04 /Relevant Experience

Systems we have built and run.

Forecasting and state-estimation models

Kalman filters, particle filters and volatility models running in production every day, validated out of sample. The same methods forecast demand, emissions, prices and costs.

A data and analytics platform

Built single-handedly: 90+ dashboards, real-time data infrastructure and automated reporting.

Quantitative systems for a $41M portfolio

At QuantM Alpha: statistical models, an execution engine and automated performance and risk reporting for institutional investors.

Forensic document analysis

On a sample document set, the engine flagged 4 of 5 management claims contradicted by the financial statements, each cited to the source page.

05 /Who Does the Work

One senior specialist, from scoping to delivery.

Ryan Germain, founder of Dark Matter R&D
Ryan Germain
Founder & Principal Quantitative Analyst

I founded Dark Matter R&D, a Canadian company based in Montréal, to bring production-grade quantitative modelling to organizations that need numbers they can defend. I build forecasting models, data pipelines and analytics systems that run every day, and previously built quantitative systems for a $41M portfolio at QuantM Alpha.

For public-sector teams, that means analysis that holds up: every figure traceable to its source, every model validated before anyone relies on it, and code your analysts can rerun after handover. You work directly with me, in English or French, from the first call to the final deliverable.

06 /Company Details

For contracting and procurement.

Legal name
17744641 CANADA LIMITED, operating as Dark Matter R&D
Federal corporation number
1774464-1 (Canada Business Corporations Act)
Québec enterprise number (NEQ)
1182482035
CRA business number
733994636
Government of Canada supplier
SAP Business Network, ANID AN11530374558
NAICS
541690 Other scientific and technical consulting · 541611 Management consulting · 541511 Custom computer programming
UNSPSC
81131500 Methodology and analysis · 81121500 Economic analysis · 81121504 Economic forecasts · 81101516 Energy consulting
Location and languages
Montréal, Québec · English and French
07 /Frequently Asked

The questions a program manager asks first.

Can you work under a simple contract?

Yes. Most engagements are scoped at a fixed price that fits a simple contract under $40K including taxes, with milestone payments. Larger work can go through a competitive process or through a prime contractor.

Do you work as a subcontractor?

Yes. We take scoped work packages under a prime contractor: modelling, forecasting, machine learning and data work, delivered under the prime's process.

Where does the data go?

It is processed and stored in Canada, or stays in your environment if you prefer. Confidentiality terms are accepted as standard, and nothing is shared or reused without your permission.

Can we get your capability statement?

Yes. Company details are above, and the capability statement is available in English or French on request: ryan@darkmatter.financial.

Start a Conversation

Need analysis or modelling
this quarter?

Send the question, the data you have and the deadline. You get a written scope and a fixed price, usually within 48 hours.

If an existing tool or another team already does this well, I'll tell you that instead.

Prefer to write?  ·  ryan@darkmatter.financial
◆ Next step
Book a callWe confirm within the day→
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